资料简介
Published for the 4th time, the annual Energy Outlook reflects our best effort to describe a “most likely” trajectory of the global energy system, based on our views of likely economic and population growth, as well as developments in policy and technology. The Outlook, like its sister publication, the Statistical Review of World Energy, is the result of intensive analysis by our Economics Team; both documents have deservedly become standard references for those with an interest in energy. Of course the future is uncertain: the numbers that make up this Outlookare less important than the long-term trends, the possible forks in the road ahead, and the choices they pose for decision makers in government and business. This edition of the Outlookraises three big questions: Will the world have sufficient energy to fuel continued economic growth? Will that energy be secure? And will it be sustainable? On the first question, our answer is a resounding “Yes”. We project that global energy consumption will rise by 41% by 2035, with 95% of that growth coming from rapidlygrowing emerging economies. That growth rate is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply. Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalization and competition. On the question of security, our Outlookoffers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. Among today’s energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy selfsufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia will become the dominant energy importing region. Russia will remain the leading energy exporter, and Africa will become an increasingly important supplier. While it will remain a key energy player, the Middle East is likely to see relatively static exports. And on the question of sustainability, we project that global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. There are some positive developments: emissions growth will slow as natural gas and renewables gain market share from coal and oil. And emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US. But we could do better. This year, we extend the outlook to 2035 –far enough to see some key turning points: India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth; renewable energy will no longer be a minor player, surpassing nuclear energy; and OECD countries will have started to “crack the code” of sustaining economic growth while reducing energy demand. Once again, the Outlookhighlights the power of competition and market forces in unlocking technology and innovation to meet the world’s energy needs. These factors make us optimistic for the world’s energy future, and they suggest a way forward in mastering challenges such as security and sustainability. I hope you find the BP Energy Outlooka useful addition to the global energy discussion.
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