APEC217天然气利用Natural Gas Utilization in APEC2017
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- 更新时间:2021-09-09
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The golden age of natural gas was expected to arrive early in the 2010s—with both the supply and demand of natural gas steadily growing, energy prices stabilising and as a tool in mitigating climate change—but has yet to materialise. This report examines the challenges faced in increasing gas utilisation for numerous economies and the best approach to promote the use of gas in the AsiaPacific and other regions by focusing on six case studies involving: Chile; China; Indonesia; Japan; United Kingdom and Viet Nam. Based on this study, six main reasons have been identified as factors that hampered gas utilisation. The first reason is that the global economy did not grow as much as initially anticipated, particularly the European economy and emerging economies such as China, which resulted in flat growth in primary energy demand. Second, natural gas has not been able to secure relative economic efficiencies in the power sector compared with coal. Many economies in the Asia-Pacific region have abundant coal resources, especially emerging economies, and with domestic energy demand expected to rapidly increase, coal has been the fuel of choice due to cost competitiveness. Third, there is strong government support for renewable energy (many economies have policies promoting renewable energy as domestic zero-emission energy). Such protection has been successful and natural gas has not been able to expand its market share as expected in the power sector because the cost of renewable energy has been falling. The fourth reason has to do with business practices related to trading natural gas. Since natural gas requires expensive infrastructure for its supply, much of it is traded on long-term contracts. Since the price of LNG in Asia is linked to international crude oil prices, it rose with the price of oil until 2014 and the demand for LNG failed to increase because of its lack of competitiveness compared with coal and other fuels. Fifth, there is a lack of infrastructure. Natural gas demand is realised only after the infrastructure is established on the consumer end. Although the potential scale of demand in the Asia-Pacific region is extremely large, the lack of progress on building public infrastructure is one reason demand is sluggish. Sixth is the decline of domestic production. In Indonesia, natural gas production has declined for economic and geological reasons, while in Viet Nam, gas demand is closely matched with domestic production. Since gas is expensive to transport, a decrease in domestic production can also lead to a decline in demand. Based on the findings from the case studies in this report, there are four policy issues in promoting the use of natural gas. First is setting a desirable energy mix. Various factors determine an economy’s energy mix, such as the price competitiveness of various energy sources, the stability of supply and its safety, and environmental compatibility. Based on these various factors, it is important for a government to clearly indicate the desirable energy supply balance. By explicitly indicating the position and character of the overall energy mix, such as the role natural gas is expected to play in a sector, businesses that supply gas will find it easier to invest in the gas business and acquire funding. Second is the maintenance of infrastructure. It is a given that as the use of gas grows so does infrastructure, but even in Europe there are many cases where the government has contributed a certain amount of money to develop it. While it is possible to make it easier for such infrastructure investment to be made by clarifying the expected role of natural gas in the above-mentioned energy mix setting, it is still necessary to provide some degree of government financial support. Especially in promoting expanded use in the transportation sector, it is increasingly important to support
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