资料简介
Russia’s relations with China have been long and volatile, alternating between close friendship and outrighthostility, especiallyintheSovietera.AtthattimetheSovietUniontook the roleof“BigBrother” in a partnership where it was the provider of new technologies and operational competence. Since 1991, though, the relationship has increasingly been founded on energy, based on the obvious logic that China has been the world’s fastest growing economy and, as of 2009, the world’s largest energy consumer,whileRussia is the world’s largestproducer of hydrocarbons (oil,gas andcoal).295 Although Russia has always been eager to avoid being seen as a simple energy producer and supplier to its increasingly wealthyeastern neighbour, and China has been reluctant to become overlydependent on apoliticallycontentious northern power, thedevelopmentof close energyties has been inevitable, and despite western cynicism has undoubtedly occurred. As with all connections involving the export and import of energy, the elements of mutual dependency areclear. Russia needs to generate revenuefrom sales of oil, gas andcoal andsees China, andmore broadly Asia, as an expanding market which can offer diversification from the more mature, and stagnant, western markets. On the other hand, Chinese energy demand has doubled over the past 12 years,morethanoutstrippingindigenousproductionandcreatingincreasingdemandforimportstofuel industrial expansion. Russia’s vast resources offer one obvious source, bringing diversity both from a relianceontheMiddle East andfrom dependenceonsealanes thatcanbethreatened bytheUSfleet. However, the nature of the relationship is not equal and opposite, and since 2014, when US and EU sanctionslimitedRussia’sabilitytoaccesstechnologyandfinanceintheoilsector,theincreasingsense has been that China is now the dominant force in this cooperation. This sense is underlined by the fact that energy co-operation has largely been driven by the timing of China’s energy needs. Oil exports from East Siberia commenced shortly after China became a net oil importer and have increased in step with its rising requirement and its desire to diversify its sources of supply. Coal exports have followed a similar trend, starting when China became a net importer, rising sharplyasChina’sneedsincreasedandnowdecliningasChinastartstoshiftitsenergyeconomyaway from coal. The example of gas is also interesting. For many years, gas has been a minor part of the Chinese energy mix. However, by 2014 expectations of a rapid increase in demand, driven by a combination of rising overall energy consumption and a desire to burn more environmentally friendly fuels, had catalysed a search for a diversified compass of imports, with Russia playing its part as the northern vector. As aresult, thePower of Siberiadeal was signedandnegotiations beganonasecond westernroute(Altai).However,sincethenChineseeconomicgrowthhasslowed,gasdemandforecasts have been reduced and consequently progress on Russian gas export plans has slowed.
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